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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Chiefs have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Bills linebackers profile as the 7th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see only 124.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.7 per game) this year.
  • Noah Gray's 13.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's play as a receiver has worsened this year, accumulating a measly 1.5 adjusted receptions compared to 2.5 last year.
  • Noah Gray's 63.8% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a significant diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 85.0% figure.

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