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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-195/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 70.2% pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.

The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

This year, the deficient Commanders pass defense has allowed a colossal 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Noah Gray's 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.

Noah Gray's play as a receiver has declined this year, averaging just 1.5 adjusted catches vs 2.5 last year.

Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 85.0% to 68.1%.

More Noah Gray Player Props

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