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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 134.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the deficient Commanders pass defense has allowed a colossal 84.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 5th-highest rate in the league.
  • The Commanders linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a big 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Noah Gray's 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's play as a receiver has declined this year, averaging just 1.5 adjusted catches vs 2.5 last year.
  • Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 85.0% to 68.1%.

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