My Account Log Out

reorder

Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-142/+119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Noah Gray's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.

Noah Gray's receiving performance has diminished this season, notching a measly 1.5 adjusted receptions compared to 2.5 last season.

Noah Gray's 61.3% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 85.0% mark.

More Noah Gray Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™