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Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Kansas City Chiefs will be rolling with backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chiefs.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

The Las Vegas Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 125.2 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 19.5.

Noah Gray's 1.5 adjusted catches per game this year marks a significant reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 2.5 mark.

More Noah Gray Player Props

Noah Gray ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 18