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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+174/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -225.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be forced to start backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The Chiefs are a massive 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 133.1 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Chiefs this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's 1.5 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a material regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 2.5 rate.
  • Noah Gray's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 85.0% to 59.2%.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.1%) versus tight ends this year (70.1%).
  • The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 10th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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