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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • The Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • This year, the poor Chargers pass defense has given up a whopping 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 10th-largest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 13th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.7 per game) this year.
  • Noah Gray's 14.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, accumulating just 1.5 adjusted catches compared to 2.5 last year.

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