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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projection model to run 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.1 per game on average).
  • The Chiefs O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the weak Texans pass defense has allowed a monstrous 77.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 10th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Noah Gray's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 85.0% to 62.3%.
  • The Houston Texans defensive ends rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

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