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Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -172.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

The Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 3rd-most in football.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 128.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 19.5.

Noah Gray's 1.4 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 2.5 figure.

Noah Gray's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 85.0% to 60.2%.

More Noah Gray Player Props

Noah Gray ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

Noah Gray Receptions
Player Prop Week 12