Noah Gray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:35 PM EST

Analysis

Noah Gray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Noah Gray's 12.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 3.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Noah Gray has been among the weakest TE receiving threats this year, averaging a mere 1.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 11th percentile among TEs.
Noah Gray's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 52.1%.