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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • This year, the weak Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a monstrous 8.27 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.
  • Noah Gray has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).
  • Noah Gray's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 19.5.
  • Noah Gray's 6.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a material diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 30.0 figure.

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