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Noah Gray

Noah Gray Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Kansas City Chiefs will be rolling with backup quarterback Chris Oladokun in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chiefs.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 125.2 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
  • Noah Gray has accrued far fewer air yards this year (12.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game).
  • Noah Gray's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 19.5.

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