Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Noah Gray

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 2:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
After accumulating 11.0 air yards per game last year, Noah Gray has posted big gains this year, currently sitting at 27.0 per game.
Noah Gray's 19.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 11.3.
Noah Gray's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, averaging 10.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 5.54 mark last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.4%) vs. tight ends this year (85.4%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
Noah Gray's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 83.2% to 64.8%.

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