Noah Gray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Noah Gray

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Gray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+101/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
Noah Gray has posted far more air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (2.0 per game).
Noah Gray's 11.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 3.5.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.5%) versus tight ends this year (64.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.