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Noah Fant

Noah Fant Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Noah Fant Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+820/-1300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -950 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1300.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 5th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.51 seconds per snap.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (73.0%).

The Vikings defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to tight ends: 0.16 per game since the start of last season.

As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Minnesota's group of DEs has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

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