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Noah Fant

Noah Fant Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Bengals being a big -10-point underdog in this game.
  • The projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • With a stellar 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) this year, Noah Fant stands among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.
  • Noah Fant's 86.4% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a significant improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 76.7% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (just 48.2 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Detroit Lions, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.
  • While Noah Fant has earned 15.6% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati's passing offense in this game at 10.0%.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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