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Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-148).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +112.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop.The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (34.2 per game) since the start of last season.Noah Fant has run a route on 68.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.Noah Fant has been one of the leading pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Bengals offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.
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