Noah Fant Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Noah Fant

NFL · Player Props

Noah Fant

TE · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Fant Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to notch 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 4th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Noah Fant has been much less involved in his team's passing game this season (12.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (18.5%).
Noah Fant's play as a receiver has declined this year, accumulating a mere 2.9 yards per game compared to 4.2 last year.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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