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Noah Fant

Noah Fant Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.51 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

While Noah Fant has earned 13.5% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Cincinnati's offense in this week's game at 8.5%.

The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Noah Fant's 5.8 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a remarkable drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 8.0 rate.

The Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (73.0%).

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