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Noah Fant

Noah Fant Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Noah Fant Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • Noah Fant's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 76.7% to 89.4%.
  • The Cardinals defense has allowed the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (65.0) versus TEs this year.
  • This year, the poor Cardinals defense has allowed the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a monstrous 7.84 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • Noah Fant has been a less important option in his team's pass game this season (7.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (13.4%).
  • After accruing 26.0 air yards per game last year, Noah Fant has been a disappointment this year, currently sitting at 11.0 per game.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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