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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Noah Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-510).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -510.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

Noah Brown has earned a monstrous 24.7% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.

This year, the feeble Bears defense has allowed a whopping 1.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.

The Bears linebackers grade out as the 4th-best collection of LBs in football this year with their run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 4.5 points.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (46.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Commanders.

The Washington Commanders have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.2 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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