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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Noah Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -650.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
  • Noah Brown has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
  • Noah Brown has garnered a massive 24.6% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
  • This year, the shaky New York Giants defense has allowed a monstrous 1.08 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 29.34 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
  • This year, Noah Brown has not caught any touchdowns through the air this year.

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