Noah Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-100/-130).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Vikings safeties project as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
The Commanders have been the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.9% pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Noah Brown to be a less important option in his team's pass game this week (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.1% in games he has played).
