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Noah Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-101/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

When talking about air yards, Noah Brown grades out in the towering 75th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a superb 57.0 per game.

This year, the porous Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a whopping 8.74 yards.

The Vikings safeties project as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders have been the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.9% pass rate.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Noah Brown to be a less important option in his team's pass game this week (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.1% in games he has played).

The Vikings defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 114.0) vs. wideouts this year.

More Noah Brown Player Props

Noah Brown Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Noah Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14