Noah Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Noah Brown

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 30, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
Noah Brown has been used less as a potential target this season (81.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (29.7%).
Noah Brown has compiled significantly more air yards this season (50.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).
Noah Brown has accrued significantly more receiving yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Noah Brown's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, notching a mere 2.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.25 figure last year.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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