Noah Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Noah Brown

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+338/-642).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -563 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -642.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Noah Brown has put up significantly more air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Noah Brown's 51.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 12.4.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be much less involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (17.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (46.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a measly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.