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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +162 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.6% red zone pass rate.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Texans this year (only 54.4 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to be much less involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line in this week's game (29.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (35.3% in games he has played).

After averaging 102.0 air yards per game last season, Nico Collins has produced significantly fewer this season, currently averaging 83.0 per game.

Nico Collins's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 67.1% to 62.2%.

More Nico Collins Player Props

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