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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +142 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +144.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (57.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Texans.

To the extent of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.54 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 5th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) right now.

Opposing QBs have averaged 44.0 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in the league.

Nico Collins's 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 94th percentile for WRs.

With an impressive rate of 0.40 per game through the air (87th percentile), Nico Collins places among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football among WRs this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

While Nico Collins has been responsible for 44.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a less important option in Houston's offense near the goal line in this contest at 31.3%.

Nico Collins has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (88.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year.

Nico Collins's 58.3% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 67.1% rate.

Opposing squads have run for the most touchdowns in football (1.75 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

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