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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Houston Texans to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

When talking about air yards, Nico Collins ranks in the towering 97th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 101.0 per game.

Nico Collins's 67.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 94th percentile for wide receivers.

With an outstanding ratio of 0.50 per game through the air (93rd percentile), Nico Collins rates among the best receiving TD-scorers in the league among wide receivers this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a huge 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.

The model projects Nico Collins to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack near the goal line in this week's contest (33.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).

More Nico Collins Player Props

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