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Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+132/-174).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -174.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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With a 33.3% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Houston Texans.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 129.0 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In regards to air yards, Nico Collins grades out in the towering 97th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, totaling a striking 98.0 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).The Houston Texans have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.The Texans O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.Nico Collins's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 67.1% to 42.0%.Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most TDs in the league (1.05 per game) against the Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
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