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Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.

The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

With an exceptional 25.7% Red Zone Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Nico Collins places as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The Texans are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and Nico Collins has received 1.5% of red zone carries this year (0th among WRs).

Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.4%.

Nico Collins has rushed for 0.06 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends (90th percentile).

More Nico Collins Player Props

Nico Collins TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18