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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+172/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (62.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.
  • With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.32 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • With an exceptional 25.7% Red Zone Target% (94th percentile) this year, Nico Collins places among the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in the league.
  • Nico Collins has posted quite a few more air yards this season (107.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Texans are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and Nico Collins has garnered 1.6% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among wideouts).
  • Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.1% to 58.4%.
  • With an exceptional rate of 0.06 rushing TDs per game (90th percentile), Nico Collins rates among the top rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs and TEs this year.
  • This year, the formidable Los Angeles Chargers defense has conceded a feeble 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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