|
|
Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+107/-128).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +107.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
At the moment, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.Nico Collins has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.6% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a heavy 10-point favorite this week.Nico Collins, who has received 1.9% of his offense's carries near the end zone this year (93rd percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Houston Texans red zone run game.The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.Nico Collins's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 67.1% to 59.9%.With a stellar rate of 0.08 rushing TDs per game (93rd percentile), Nico Collins rates among the leading rushing TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends this year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
