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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -196.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Texans.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
  • The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
  • Nico Collins has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.
  • The Texans are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Nico Collins has received 2.2% of red zone carries this year (0th when it comes to wideouts).
  • Nico Collins's 60.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a remarkable decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 67.1% figure.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.67 per game this year.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's CB corps has been outstanding this year, ranking as the best in football.

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