reorder

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -176 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -174.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.

Nico Collins's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 67.1% to 61.4%.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.1% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the weak Buffalo Bills run defense has been torched for a colossal 1.70 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the worst rate in the league.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Buffalo's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

More Nico Collins Player Props

Nico Collins TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Nico Collins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12