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Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-172).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +154.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.With a 61.6% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football in this setting has been the Texans.The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.Nico Collins has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 34.2% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.4 per game) this year.Nico Collins's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 67.1% to 57.6%.This year, the shaky Titans run defense has given up a monstrous 1.67 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the highest rate in the league.
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