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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -157 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 135.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Nico Collins is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.1 targets.
  • With a remarkable 24.1% Target% (89th percentile) this year, Nico Collins rates as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Nico Collins's 3.6 adjusted catches per game this season represents a material decline in his pass-catching talent over last season's 5.5 rate.
  • Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 67.1% to 56.7%.
  • This year, the tough Broncos defense has allowed a measly 61.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-best rate in the league.
  • The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 7th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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