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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Houston Texans to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is expected by the projection model to rank in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.1 targets.

Nico Collins's 67.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 94th percentile for wide receivers.

Since the start of last season, the porous Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded a monstrous 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 7th-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a huge 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.

In regards to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

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