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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-134/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) since the start of last season.

In this week's game, Nico Collins is projected by the model to slot into the 93rd percentile among wide receivers with 9.0 targets.

With an exceptional 25.5% Target Share (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Nico Collins ranks as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive approach to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Houston offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Tampa Bay cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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