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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
  • In this week's game, Nico Collins is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 92nd percentile among wideouts with 8.3 targets.
  • With a sizeable 24.8% Target Share (89th percentile) this year, Nico Collins stands among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Nico Collins's pass-catching performance declined this season, averaging a mere 4.1 adjusted receptions compared to 5.5 last season.
  • Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.5%.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's CB corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

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