reorder

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.

The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

In this contest, Nico Collins is projected by the predictive model to place in the 92nd percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

Nico Collins's pass-catching performance declined this season, averaging a measly 4.1 adjusted catches compared to 5.5 last season.

Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.4%.

More Nico Collins Player Props

Nico Collins ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 18

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 18