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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (62.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.
  • With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.32 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In this week's contest, Nico Collins is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 8.6 targets.
  • Nico Collins has been in the 90th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a superb 64.6 mark this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
  • Nico Collins's 4.1 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a noteable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 5.5 figure.
  • Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.1% to 58.4%.
  • This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a mere 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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