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Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-161).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -161.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.24 seconds per snap, the model projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Nico Collins is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 90th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.

Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 25.1% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.5%) to wideouts this year (70.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Texans, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to pass on 54.6% of their plays: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Raiders defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

The Texans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Nico Collins's 4.2 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a noteable decline in his receiving skills over last year's 5.5 rate.

More Nico Collins Player Props

Nico Collins ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 16