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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-108/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +119 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Texans.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
  • The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
  • In this week's game, Nico Collins is projected by the projection model to finish in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.
  • Nico Collins's 60.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a remarkable decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 67.1% figure.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's CB corps has been outstanding this year, ranking as the best in football.

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