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Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+142/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -144.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.

The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.

The model projects Nico Collins to garner 8.9 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

Nico Collins's 64.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 91st percentile for WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.4 per game) this year.

Nico Collins's 4.4 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a substantial regression in his receiving skills over last season's 5.5 mark.

Nico Collins's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 67.1% to 57.6%.

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Nico Collins ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 11