My Account Log Out

reorder

Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-146/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -146.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans rank as the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) last year with a 63.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 132.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 9.3 targets.

Nico Collins's 65.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Last year, the stout Rams defense has conceded a feeble 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

More Nico Collins Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™