Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2026 2:37 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (62.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
The model projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
In this contest, Nico Collins is projected by the predictive model to place in the 92nd percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets.

Favors Under

The model projects the Texans offensive approach to skew 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Nico Collins has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (75.0).
Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.4%.
Nico Collins's ability to generate extra yardage has declined this year, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 rate last year.

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