Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 27, 2025 10:02 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 62.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (62.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Texans.
With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.32 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Nico Collins is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 8.6 targets.
Nico Collins has posted quite a few more air yards this season (107.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Nico Collins's 61.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a meaningful diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season's 75.0 figure.
Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.1% to 58.4%.
Nico Collins's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies an impressive decline in his efficiency in space over last season's 5.2% figure.
This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a mere 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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