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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 71.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 77.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 61.3 per game on average).
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
  • In this week's contest, Nico Collins is anticipated by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.9 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a heavy 10-point favorite this week.
  • The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Nico Collins's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 67.1% to 59.9%.
  • Nico Collins's skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this year, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 mark last year.
  • The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs this year, surrendering 7.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

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