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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 75.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 75.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • Nico Collins has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (64.0) this season than he did last season (75.0).
  • Nico Collins's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 67.1% to 61.4%.
  • Nico Collins's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a meaningful decrease in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 5.2% figure.

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