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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans will be forced to start backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • With a 64.1% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the Houston Texans.
  • The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average).
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see only 129.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • Nico Collins has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).
  • Nico Collins has notched quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (75.0).
  • Nico Collins's 58.9% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a significant regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 67.1% figure.
  • Nico Collins's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, notching a measly 7.63 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.07 rate last year.

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